I still had congestion and a scratchy throat through the weekend. On Sunday night I had a tickle in my throat that kept me coughing periodically until I could finally fall asleep. I felt somewhat better yesterday, though a bit tired from not having had a full night's sleep. Last night I got to bed around 8:00 PM and was able to fall asleep relatively quickly. This morning I can still feel that I'm not fully recovered. So, it looks like I'm going to take another week off before I start my training plan.

On Sunday, I started to create a spreadsheet to outline what my projected pace and finish time would be for each leg and for each season given my goal pace for the 2017 race, my expected improvement from season to season and my estimated transition times. I did a bit of research to see whether my goal time for 2017 was reasonable for a 50 year old to achieve and whether my transition times are conservative enough. Both numbers checked out just fine. In 2013 at the IM World Championships 120 (out of 169 total finishers) in the Male 50 - 54 Age group finished in under 12 hours. Looking at a range of transition times for the Male 45 - 49 and 50 - 54 Age group finishers, it appears to be the exceptions that take more than 10 minutes per transition. It's likely that they were choosing to rest in between each leg.

Here is how things came out assuming a 5% improvement from season to season:


Swim

(seconds / 100 yd)

Bike

(miles / hr)

Run

(minutes / mi)

Swim

(minutes)

T1

(minutes)

Bike

(minutes)

T2

(minutes)

Run

(minutes)

Total Time

(hours)

201411715.61182104321029013.75
201511116.310.578104121027613
201610517.11074103921026212.5
2017100189.571103731024911.9

If I change the percent improvement from season to season, that just changes what I'm targeting in the previous seasons; everything is driven off my goal times for 2017.

I also put together a chart for what I need to target at the 1/2 IM distance. It assumes that the swim pace won't degrade over 2.4 miles compared to 1.2 miles. Based on an analysis by Raymond Britt (http://www.runtri.com/2012/03/predicting-your-full-ironman-time-based.html), that is a reasonable assumption. In fact, it appears that the swim generally takes LESS than two times the 1/2 IM distance. The results allow for a 10% degradation of average pace on the bike and run from the 1/2 IM to the full IM. This degradation is actually quite conservative based on Raymond Britt's analysis. He calculated a 6% degradation (putting into the terms I use for the spreadsheet calculation).

Here are the results for the 1/2 IM target paces:


Swim

(seconds / 100 yd)

Bike

(miles / hr)

Run

(minutes / mi)

Swim

(minutes)

T1

(minutes)

Bike

(minutes)

T2

(minutes)

Run

(minutes)

Total Time

(hours)

201411717.1104110196101326.5
2015111189.63910187101256.2
201610518.893710178101195.9
201710019.88.63510170101135.6

Yesterday morning I put in more time filling out the spreadsheet for the training plan for 2014, using the Just Finish program from Don Fink's beIronfit book. I plan to complete that this morning.

So, there it is. While I'm not able to train right now, I've still kept myself busy with planning and projecting. Now I will have to see how the actual numbers play out.

I give thanks to the Universe for the abundance it provides me. I surrender and am open and ready to receive.

Bhavatu, sabba, mangalam -- May all beings be happy.